Prognostic guides in patients with idiopathic or ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy assessed for cardiac transplantation

In an attempt to identify which parameters predict survival in advanced dilated cardiomyopathy, 232 patients presenting for assessment for cardiac transplantation were investigated and followed for 10 ± 12 months (range 2 weeks to 5 years). Etiology of dilated cardiomyopathy included ischemic heart disease (33%), idiopathic (42%) and miscellaneous (25%). In each patient, 26 parameters were recorded. Whole group survival was 68% at 1 year, 56% at 2 years, 41% at 3 years and 25% at 4 years. On Cox multivariate regression analysis, 3 parameters predicted survival: New York Heart Association symptom class (p < 0.0001), pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (p < 0.008) and plasma atrial natriuretic factor level (p < 0.002). On paired testing of actuarial survival curves, plasma noradrenaline also held predictive value (p < 0.002), as did left ventricular ejection fraction ≤20% on radionuclide ventriculography (p = 0.007) and presence of ≥4 beats of ventricular tachycardia on Hotter monitoring (p = 0.007). Treatment with amiodarone did not appear to influence survival. Conventional determinants of prognosis in cardiomyopathy (symptom class, wedge pressure, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia and ejection fraction) do not alone always adequately differentiate survival in this group of high risk patients. More attention to plasma noradrenaline and to atrial natriuretic factor levels may give important additional information in the context of assessment of patients for transplantation.